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In terms of irrelevant-to-one’s-own-life things to root for, I find rooting for actors or directors or writers or movies far more satisfying than rooting for sports team. A sports team is only really “your” sports team if it’s in your city or you can make some solid, childhood-based argument as to why you are connected to the team. A movie, a director, an actor can be “yours” because you say so. Two years ago, Sophia Coppola was “my” director, her Lost in Translation was “my” movie. This year, I’m not pushed to the sides just because her Marie Antoinette doesn’t come out until this fall.

This year, I have not one particular juggernaut but a mish mash of nominees who I strongly want to win. I’d like to see Peter Jackson accept a surprise best director award for King Kong, in part because I loved the movie and in part because it truly was a great feat to get such good performances out of actors acting opposite a green screen. I’d love to see Felicity Huffman win for Transamerica even though I still haven’t seen the movie (she’s such a great grown-up actress who manages to have a satisfying career and a family). I’d also love to see Reese Witherspoon, who’s likely to go up against her in the best actress category, win for Walk the Line because her performance was truly the best thing about the movie. I’d cheer if a little movie like The Squid and the Whale could break through and win anything in the top six categories.

With the nominations about to be announced and the serious campaigning about to begin I give you my prediction for nominations in the big six categories, my fantasy football version of the movie playoffs.

Oscar nomination predictions
Make your guesses then tune in to damn near any television station at about 8:30 a.m. (Eastern, that’s 5:30 a.m. on the West Coast, you know so campaigning can begin immediately) on Tuesday, Jan. 31, to see who will really make it to the final round this year.

Best Movie
Likely nominees: Brokeback Mountain; The Constant Gardner; A History of Violence; Match Point; Walk the Line.
Early favorite: Brokeback Mountain. Everybody loves gay cowboys.
Wild card: The Squid and the Whale. This funny, slightly wince-inducing, very spot-on Noah Baumbach dramady about a family falling apart received a lot of nominations (though no wins) at the Golden Globes.
Sentimental possibility: Munich. The Academy loves a serious Steven Spielberg.

Best Director
Likely nominees: Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain; David Cronenberg for A History of Violence; Peter Jackson for King Kong; Woody Allen for Match Point; James Mangold for Walk the Line.
Early favorite: Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain. Gay cowboys on the march.
Wild card: Fernando Meirelles for The Constant Gardner. Every year one guy is nominated for best director whose movie isn’t nominated for best movie. Likewise, one nominated movie doesn’t get its director in the race. My guess—either Meirelles or Mangold will be the odd man out.
Sentimental possibility: Steven Spielberg for Munich. No, the Academy really loves a serious Steven Spielberg.

Best actor
Likely nominees: Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain; Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Capote; Viggio Mortensen for A History of Violence; Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line; David Straitharin for Good Night, and Good Luck.
Early favorite: Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain. Though Hoffman won at the Globes, I think it’s still Ledger’s game to lose.
Wild card: Kong for King Kong (OK, technically, I guess it would be Andy Serkis). I know they can’t, they won’t but, damn, they should.
Sentimental possibility: Eric Bana for Munich. He did a good job as a man whose own morality slowly tortures him. Also, see above RE: Spielberg.

Best actress
Likely nominees: Maria Bello for A History of Violence; Claire Danes for Shopgirl; Felicity Huffman for Transamerica; Laura Linney for The Squid and the Whale; Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line.
Early favorite: Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line. Yes, Huffman is a grown-up woman playing a meaty part but Witherspoon is much more Hollywood.
Wild card: Naomi Watts for King Kong. An excellent acting job, most of it opposite absolutely nothing.
Sentimental possibility: Gwyneth Paltrow for Proof. A decent performance. Also, what’s more Hollywood than Witherspoon? The very pretty Paltrow.

Best supporting actor
Likely nominees: Jack Black for King Kong; George Clooney for Syriana; Matt Dillon for Crash; Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain; Jeffrey Wright for Syriana.
Early favorite: George Clooney for Syriana. Or for Good Night, and Good Luck. Or for just making liberal-ish movies that don’t make liberalism look wimpy or whiny.
Wild card: Everybody else in Crash. It’s the movie that could launch a handful of nominations.
Sentimental possibility: Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man. But really for Sideways, because awarding after-the-fact is a trend forever in style (Al Pacino).

Best supporting actress
Likely nominees: Amy Adams for Junebug; Scarlett Johannson for Match Point; Thandie Newton for Crash; Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener; Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain.
Early favorite: Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain. Girl went from Dawson’s Creek to Oscar contender. That, in and of itself, is noteworthy.
Wild card: Sandra Bullock for Crash. Dude, I know. There also is a possibility that one of the previously mentioned best actress contenders (Bello or Linney, for example) could end up in this category.
Sentimental possibility: Charlize Theron for North Country. Because even in lackluster movies, uglying yourself up always turns Oscar’s head.

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01/19/2006 Almost Gruntled: Looking a gift something or other in the mouth
01/05/2006 Eveerybody loves the gay cowboys