The Popcorn Vote
The movie campaign for your summer dollars
By Amy Diaz adiaz@hippopress.com

The summer’s just begun but already the competition among movies is brutal.

Yes, Hollywood mounts vicious campaigns during Oscar season. But at the end of the day, those are only for acclaim. The campaign to build the best blockbuster movie is for money, for survival.

This year, familiar franchises battle with movies headlined by big stars and small movies (especially documentaries), which could offer the biggest payouts of all (since their costs are relatively low). And all of them want your buck.

Here is a look at some of the hottest contenders. (Be aware, to get the biggest bang for their marketing bucks, studios sometimes change movie release dates at the last moment. The dates listed are as they stand at press time but could change. All release dates are for movies opening in wide release unless otherwise noted.)

The Front-runners
• The Break-up (PG-13)
The stats: Stars Jennifer Aniston and Vince Vaughn; opens Friday, June 2
Campaign platform: Aniston and Vaughn play a couple that has broken up but continues to live together, waging a war of attrition over the condo.
Likely constituency: Girls and boys who still have the hots for Rachel.
Secret weapon: Peyton Reed, the genius behind cult-fave Bring It On and the underappreciated Down with Love, is the director here.
The scoop: By law, we must have at least one romantic comedy every six weeks.
• Nacho Libre (PG)
The stats: Stars Jack Black and Hector Jimenez; opens June 16
Campaign platform: Black plays a Mexican monk who becomes a wrestler to raise money for the children of his orphanage.
Likely constituency: People who are alive and have $7.50 ($9.25 in some major cities).
Secret weapon: Jared Hess, director of Nacho Libre and Napoleon Dynamite.
The scoop: Jack Black in tights and a cap using a Mexican accent can not help but be funny.
• The Devil Wears Prada (PG-13)
The stats: Stars Meryl Streep and Anne Hathway; opens June 30
Campaign platform: A young would-be writer descends into the viper’s nest of the fashion magazine world in New York City.
Likely constituency: Readers of the book; chick lit fans in general; Ella Enchanted fans old enough to buy tickets; Anna Wintour.
Secret weapon: The word “Prada”; the bajillion people who read the roman a clef book on which this movie is based.
The scoop: It’s the big chick-lit release of the summer and has a juicy, ripe-for-satire topic.
• Lady in the Water (PG-13)
The stats: Stars Paul Giamatti and Bryce Howard; opens July 21
Campaign platform: A man finds a mythical creature in his pool and attempts to help her return to her world.
Likely constituency: People who don’t disappoint easily; people who really loved The Sixth Sense.
Secret weapon: Bryce Howard? Can act.
The scoop: Despite The Village and Signs, you will continue to see movies by M. Night Shyamalan
• Talladega Night: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby
The stats: Stars Will Ferrell and Amy Adams; opens Aug. 4
Campaign platform: The story of Ricky Bobby, a NASCAR superstar.
Likely constituency: People who like Will Ferrell; most of the people who don’t like Will Ferrell; also I hear this NASCAR thing is fairly popular.
Secret weapon: Sacha Baron Cohen (who you may know as Ali G).
The scoop: I thought it was stupid and yet I laughed ’til my stomach hurt at Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy.

The Incumbents
• The X-Men: The Last Stand (PG-13)
The statistics: Stars Patrick Stewart, Ian McClellan, Hugh Jackman, Halle Berry and Anna Paquin
Campaign platform: Trust us just one more time, the franchise begs, and more or less delivers (see review at hippopress.com).
Likely constituency: People who had three consecutive days off last weekend; fans of the other two movies.
Secret weapon: People die.
The scoop: Opened with an estimated $120 million take last weekend.
• The Omen (R)
The stats: Stars Liv Schreiber, Julia Stiles and Mia Farrow; opens Tuesday, June 6 (because 06/06/06 — marketing people think of everything).
Campaign platform: Roughly the same story as the original 30 years ago (child who might be the antichrist wreaks havoc).
Likely constituency: Teenagers who like horror flicks; parents of satanic children.
Secret weapon: Pete Postlethwaite as a priest, always entertaining
The scoop: Aw, heck, they’ve remade everything else…
• The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (PG-13)
The stats: Stars Shad “Bow Wow” Gregory Moss; Lucas Black; opens June 16
Campaign platform: Like the other two but with no Vin Diesel, no Paul Walker and this time the hot girls are Asian.
Likely constituency: Not Paul Walker’s family but everybody who like shiny cars and shiny women.
Secret weapon: Er….
Running mate for a good double feature: Cars — to make driving seem appealing again.
The scoop: Did that many people really see 2 Fast 2 Furious?
• Garfield’s A Tale of Two Kitties
The stats: Stars Breckin Meyer and Jennifer Love Hewitt with the voice of Bill Murray; opens June 16
Campaign platform: Garfield goes to England.
Likely constituency: You people that encouraged them by buying tickets to the first Garfield.
Secret weapon: Bill Murray, because he makes you feel less wrong about watching the movie.
The scoop: Enough people saw the first Garfield movie to make this a likely financial win. Weirdly.
• Superman Returns (PG-13)
The statistics: Stars Brandon Routh, Kate Bosworth and Kevin Spacey; opens June 30
Campaign platform: The Superman you know and love returns and his story picks up post Superman II.
Likely constituency: Everyone who ever read the comics, saw the Christopher Reeve movies or watched the cartoon; everyone who cares about truth, justice and the American way; Jerry Seinfeld.
Secret weapon: Director Brian Singer, the force behind the first two X-Men films.
Running mate for a good double feature: X-Men: The Last Stand to achieve superhero overload.
The scoop: Trailers are chill-inducing and Singer has the golden touch. Only x-factor? The uneven Kevin Spacey.
• Miami Vice
The statistics: Stars Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx; opens July 28.
Campaign platform: The 1980s TV show comes to the big screen, only more “street.”
Likely constituency: Anyone who wears shoes with no socks or pastel jackets with the sleeves pushed up; young 30somethings who had access to the TV when they were 10.
Secret weapon: Director Michael Mann, who brought out greatness in Foxx and Tom Cruise in 2004’s Collateral.
The scoop: Remember the theme song? Remember the speed boat? You make fun, but you know you’re going to see it.
• Clerks II
The stats: Stars Kevin Smith, Jason Mewes, Jeff Anderson, Brian O’Halloran and Rosario Dawson
Campaign platform: Same two sets of hetero-lifemates (Jay and Silent Bob; Dante and Randal) but this time Dante and Randal work at a Mooby’s (think back in your View Askewniverse terminology).
Likely constituency: Kevin Smith fans; kids who run up their credit cards to make black and white student films.
Secret weapon: Nostalgia for 1995.
The scoop: Smith didn’t exactly strike gold with his first non-Jay-and-Silent-Bob movie (the sap-tacular Jersey Girl). This return to his roots seems a bit desperate.
• Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
The stats: Stars Johnny Depp, Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightly; opens July 7
Campaign platform: The gang of pirates return for a new adventure.
Likely constituency: Depp-philes; families who can’t afford a trip to the actual Disney World.
Secret weapon: Puffy shirts — this time, even puffier.
The scoop: Nothing entertains like the ever-more-insane Depp.

The Long-shots
• The Lake House
The statistics: Stars Sandra Bullock and Keanu Reeves; opens June 16
Campaign platform: Bullock and Reeves live in the same funky glass house on a lake but are separated by two years. Somehow, they are able to communicate via letter and a romance blooms.
Likely constituency: Women who went to high school in the late 1980s, early 1990s and still think Keanu is sexy.
Secret weapon: Shohreh Aghdashloo, who has a small role but is awesome.
The scoop: Love transcends time and place but can it transcend the questionable adaptations of Korean films?
• Click (PG-13)
The statistics: Stars Adam Sandler and Kate Beckinsale; opens June 23
Campaign platform: Adam Sandler and the remote control — with his wacky abilities to fast forward or pause time, the possibilities for hilarity are endless
Likely constituency: People who saw Waterboy and as a result will see everything Sandler is in; people who saw Punch-Drunk Love and hope he will do that again.
Secret weapon: The one-two punch of Christopher Walken and David Hasselhoff.
The scoop: Yet another example of how badly Sandler wants to grow out of his Happy Gilmore persona. So far, Spanglish was his most successful attempt at maturity, not that that’s saying much.
• Little Man
The stats: Stars Marlon Wayans, Shawn Wayans, Kerry Washington and Tracy Morgan; opens July 5
Campaign platform: The more annoying Wayans pretends to be a little person (with the help of some CGI) pretending to be a baby in order to get back a diamond he misplaced. So many distasteful things…
Likely constituency: Other Wayans siblings; people who saw White Girls.
Secret weapon: People walking into wrong theater and deciding not to leave.
The scoop: Blech… I mean, have you seen the trailers?
• You, Me and Dupree
The stats: Stars Matt Dillon, Owen Wilson and Kate Hudson; opens July 14
Campaign platform: Hudson and Dillon are married; Wilson is the buddy who just needs to crash “for a little while” in their new love nest.
Likely constituency: Those starved for a good romantic comedy; those who think Owen Wilson can do no wrong.
Secret weapon: Timing — it opens during a comedy drought.
The scoop: Seems like a movie better suited for August.
• John Tucker Must Die (PG-13)
The stats: Stars Sophie Bush, Jesse Metcalf and Ashanti; opens July 28
Campaign platform: Three girls find out they’re dating the same guy and decide to use the egghead girl to get back on him. Naturally, this requires a makeover!
Likely constituency: Teen girls; teen girls who’ve dated jerks.
Secret weapon: Pixar.
The scoop: Teens see movies.
• World Trade Center
The stats: Stars Nicolas Cage, Maria Bello and Maggie Gyllenhaal; opens Aug. 9
Campaign platform: A movie certain to anger everyone, World Trade Center follows two Port Authority police officers who get trapped in one of the towers when it collapses. I try to approach movies with an open mind but I must say that I have no hope for this movie whatsoever.
Likely constituency: Oliver Stone.
Secret weapon: Stone’s ability to confuse.
The scoop: On the bright side, it will be entertaining to see how Sept. 11 fits in with the Kennedy assassination.
• Accepted (PG-13)
The stats: Stars Justin Long and Lewis Black; opens Aug. 11
Campaign platform: A high school senior finds himself with lots of rejection letters but no acceptance letters from potential colleges. Unwilling to work a lifetime of menial jobs, he and his friends decide to start their own “university.”
Likely constituency: The kids who can’t get into R-rated movies.
Secret weapon: Surprise (nobody expects much from an August movie).
The scoop: Any shot this movie has hinges on its normally good actors.
• Step Up (PG-13)
The stats: Stars Channing Tatum and Rachel Griffiths; opens Aug. 11
Campaign platform: A kid from the wrong side of the track needs a future; girl from the rich side of town needs a dance partner. Hey, you got your Save the Last Dance peanut butter all over my The Cutting Edge chocolate!
Likely constituency: Teens, cheese-food movie fans, me!
Secret weapon: One of this movie’s writers wrote several episodes of The O.C.
The scoop: There’s no cheesy movie like a dance cheesy movie (the poster even has Dirty Dancing font!).
• The Reaping
The stats: Stars Hilary Swank and David Morrissey; opens Aug. 11
Campaign platform: A former missionary lost her faith when her family was tragically killed and has become an expert at disproving supernatural religious phenomena. But when she goes to a small town in Louisiana being visited by biblical plagues, she begins to think it isn’t just a trick after all.
Likely constituency: Film critics who have to see the movie as part of their job; magicians with a day off.
Secret weapon: Swank has been known to win an Oscar or two.
The scoop: This can’t be good for Louisiana’s tourism renaissance.
• Invincible
The stats: Stars Mark Wahlberg and Greg Kinnear; opens Aug. 25
Campaign platform: Based on a true story of a guy who showed up for an open tryout for the Philadelphia Eagles and actually made the cut to train with the team. Though older and more out-of-shape than the other guys, will he have enough heart to make the team? Well, Disney’s the studio behind this film so I’m guessing…
Likely constituency: Sports fans; Marky Mark fans.
Secret weapon: ’70s hair.
The scoop: Wahlberg has talent but the words “inspiring true story” give me pause.
• Beerfest
The stats: Stars Mo’Nique and Will Forte; opens Aug. 25
Campaign platform: Pretty much what it sounds like; American boys go to Germany and take part in a beer-heavy competition called Beerfest.
Likely constituency: Teenage boys; theater employees.
Secret weapon: Writer and director Jay Chandrasekhar did write for Arrested Development.
The scoop: It’s a movie about beer that’s opening in August. Pretty much says it all.

The Family Man
• Cars (G)
The stats: Voices of Owen Wilson, Paul Newman, Larry the Cable Guy and Bonnie Hunt; opens June 9
Campaign platform: In an all-car universe, a brash young race car learns about humility and friendship in the small town of Radiator Springs.
Likely constituency: Children and everybody who has them; people who worship at the altar of Pixar.
Secret weapon: Pixar.
The scoop: It’s from Pixar and Pixar doesn’t make failures.
• Monster House
The stats: Voices of Maggie Gyllenhaal and Steve Buscemi; opens July 21
Campaign platform: A neighborhood house isn’t just haunted, it’s alive. And, apparently, it’s hungry.
Likely constituency: Parents and the children they are desperate to entertain.
Secret weapon: Two of the writers worked on Sarah Silverman’s Comedy Central pilot; the other one worked on Corpse Bride.
The scoop: Trailer suggests a good kid adventure but kid movies are easy to mess up.
• Barnyard
The stats: Voices of Steve Odenkirk, Kevin James and Courtney Cox; opens July 28
Campaign platform: Barnyard animals are secretly smarter than their human farmers.
Likely constituency: Parents looking for something to get them through another humid weekend with bored kids.
Secret weapon: Wanda Sykes voicing one of the cows.
The scoop: Again, trailers look good but a movie this into its conceit can easily lose younger viewers.
• The Ant Bully
The stats: Voices of Nicholas Cage and Paul Giamatti; opens Aug. 4
Campaign platform: Based on a popular children’s book in which a boy is shrunk to the size of an ant after he terrorizes a colony with a squirt gun.
Likely constituency: Kids, all of them.
Secret weapon: Bruce Campbell.
The scoop: Kids’ movies based on kids’ books seem to have a better shot at staying focused on their young audiences.
• Zoom
The stats: Stars Tim Allen and Chevy Chase; opens Aug. 11
Campaign platform: A retired superhero is asked to teach at a school for future supers.
Likely constituency: Kids who have no choice in what they are going to see; parents who will do anything to kill 90 minutes.
Secret weapon: At this point in the summer, kids will watch anything.
The scoop: I really liked this movie when it came out last year and was called Sky High.
• How to Eat Fried Worms
The stats: Stars Timothy Patrick Cavanaugh and Kimberly Williams; opens Aug. 25.
Campaign platform: Based on the popular kids’ book, in which a new kid at school takes on the bully, betting him that he can eat 10 worms. His bravado leads to an overall standing-up-for-themselves revolution among the bullied.
Likely constituency: Elementary school kids.
Secret weapon: It’s a really charming book.
The scoop: Trailers and source material suggest a winning movie for kids age 7 to 12.
• Material Girls
The stats: Stars the Duffs, Hilary and Haylie; opens Aug. 25
Campaign platform: Two wealthy sisters must, like, totally learn how to deal when their parents lose all their cash.
Likely constituency: 11- to 14 year-old girls; whichever grown-up is unfortunate enough to drive them.
Secret weapon: One of the movie’s three writers once wrote for Joey. So, he is a “secret weapon” of a sort.
The scoop: This seems like the sort of movie made for its demographic and absolutely no one else.

The Independents
• The Heart of the Game
The statistics: Documentary; opens in limited release June 7
Campaign platform: This documentary follows one girls’ high school basketball team through six seasons.
Likely constituency: Everybody who saw Murderball or Mad Hot Ballroom last summer.
Secret weapon:
Blockbuster-fatigue.
The scoop: As the aforementioned Murderball and Mad Hot Ballroom proved, this kind of documentary can be a crowd-pleaser.
• A Prairie Home Companion (PG-13)
The statistics: Stars Woody Harrelson, Lily Tomlin, Tommy Lee Jones and Meryl Streep; opens in limited release June 9
Campaign platform: Robert Altman directs the fictional tale about the last night of this radio show. Characters such as Guy Noir show up in the flesh.
Likely constituency: NPR listeners; readers of the Lake Woebegone books; Minnesotans
Secret weapon: A very pregnant Maya Rudolph (of Saturday Night Live fame); a very blond Lindsay Lohan.
Running mate for a good double feature: Something on PBS.
The scoop: Where the women are strong, the men are good-looking and all the children are above average — does this kind of humor really translate that well?
• A Scanner Darkly (R)
The stats: Stars Winona Ryder, Keanu Reeves, Woody Harrelson and Robert Downey; opens in limited release July 7
Campaign platform: Sometime in the not-so-distant future, a cop addicted to a powerful drug attempts to track a mysterious group of people. The movie is based on a novel by Philip K. Dick.
Likely constituency: Linklater fans; owners of Free Winona shirts.
Secret weapon: Richard Linklater, director of this and of the similarly animated Waking Life.
The scoop: Reportedly, it’s a faithful retelling of the story and good use of this style of animation.
• Little Miss Sunshine (R)
The stats: Stars Toni Collete, Greg Kinnear, Steve Carell and Alan Arkin; opens in limited release on July 26
Campaign platform: A family of quirky characters (the teenage brother who won’t speak; the uncle who tried to kill himself over his love for a male grad student) come together to support their 7-year-old daughter, who wants to compete in the Little Miss Sunshine pageant.
Likely constituency: People who have seen the very charming trailer several times; fans of the American The Office.
Secret weapon: Abigail Breslin, the competing Little Miss with the too-big glasses.
The scoop: Plenty of people like their comedy dark.
• Quinceanera
The stats: Stars newcomer Emily Rios; opens in limited release on Aug. 2
Campaign platform: A Los Angeles girl prepares for her quinceanera (the big party that celebrates a girl’s 15th birthday) but finds out she’s pregnant.
Likely constituency: Chicas; people who love discovered-at-Sundance stories.
Secret weapon: Lots of American movie-goers now know what a quinceanera is.
The scoop: The same fertile indie ground that produced the charming Real Women Have Curves.

The Wonks
• An Inconvenient Truth (PG)
The statistics: Documentary featuring Al Gore; opens in limited release on June 2
Campaign platform: Al Gore gives his global warming slide show with surprising vigor. He swears this is not a bid for office.
Likely constituency: Blue states.
Secret weapon: Unresolved rage from 2000.
Running mate for a good double feature: Why We Fight — a perfect twofer if you really want to bum yourself out.
The scoop: See review on page 50.
• Wordplay
The statistics: Documentary by Patrick Creadon about Will Shortz, editor of the New York Times Crossword puzzle; opens June 16
Campaign platform: A documentary about the New York Times crossword puzzles and the people who are obsessed with them.
Likely constituency: Anybody who has every thought “Damn you, Will Shortz.”
Secret weapon: Nerds — who, onscreen, include Jon Stewart, Bob Dole, Ken Burns and Bill Clinton.
The scoop: Documentaries proved last year that they can be some of summer’s most profitable flicks.
• Who Killed the Electric Car (PG)
The statistics: Documentary; opens on June 30 in New York and Los Angeles
Campaign platform: Documentary about the death and resurrection of the electric car and the future of renewable sources of energy.
Likely constituency: Prius owners; people who recycle.
Secret weapon: Prius owners will save enough on gas to afford tickets.
The scoop: Yes, this is a lot of “renewable energy” talk for one summer but it is the subject of the day.

The Dark Horses
• Leonard Cohen: I’m Your Man
The statistics: Interview with Leonard Cohen; opens in New York on June 21
Campaign platform: Cohen’s life, art, music and stories.
Likely constituency: Boomers, art students, musicians, people who can find a theater where it’s playing.
Secret weapon: Scarcity.
The scoop: Sounds great and like it will be tough for us in smaller markets to find.
• Waist Deep
The statistics: Stars Tyrese Gibson and The Game; opens June 23
Campaign platform:
Likely constituency: Whoever actually likes The Game.
Secret weapon: Producer Russell Simmons.
The scoop: Tyrese needs to fire whoever’s giving him these roles and the tough-but-fair Marine roles and then try to establish himself as a real actor before he slides into Cuba Gooding Jr. territory.
• Strangers with Candy (R)
The stats: Stars Amy Sedaris, Stephen Colbert, Matthew Broderick and Sarah Jessica Parker; opens in New York on June 28
Campaign platform: Nothing is funnier than a racist 46-year-old ex-con/ex-junkie who decides it’s time to return to high school.
Likely constituency: People who saw the original series on Comedy Central; anyone who has ever heard David Sedaris talk about his sister on This American Life.
Secret weapon: This time, the good-taste conventions of basic cable do not apply.
The scoop: The show finally gets it due.
• Pathfinder
The stats: Stars Jay Tavare and Karl Urban; opens July 14
Campaign platform: The Vikings attempt to conquer North America and the people who live there but in their battle they leave a small boy behind. He’s raised by the Native Americans and, when the Vikings return, he must decide which side he is on.
Likely constituency: Anyone who enjoys a good pillaging.
Secret weapon: Vikings.
The scoop: You know, it’s cheesy action flicks like this that can occasionally surprise you.
• Fearless (PG-13)
The stats: Stars Jet-Li; opens Aug. 4.
Campaign platform: Jet-Li plays a man who wants to continue his father’s legacy of being a world-class fighter but who disappears after some tragedy only to reappear at a plot-convenient time to make with the kicking.
Likely constituency: Anyone who’s ever thought “cool, martial arts.”
Secret weapon: The lure of Jet-Li and the pure cheese-food August movie.
The scoop: When it’s hot outside and the theater is cool inside, sometimes something this simple is all you need.
• My Super Ex-Girlfriend
The stats: Stars Uma Thurman and Luke Wilson; opens July 21
Campaign platform: Thurman plays a super-possessive girlfriend who becomes bent on destroying her ex-boyfriend’s love life after he dumps her.
Likely constituency: People who saw The Wedding Crashers.
Secret weapon: Eddie Izzard — cake or death?
The scoop: If the movie ends up rated R, it might be worth seeing. If it shows up PG-13, expect something toothless.
• I Could Never Be Your Woman (PG-13)
The stats: Stars Michelle Pfieffer, Paul Rudd and Tracey Ullman; opens July 29
Campaign platform: Ullman is Mother Nature and messes in everyone’s romances.
Likely constituency: People who remember The Tracey Ullman Show.
Secret weapon: Amy Heckerling (Clueless, Fast Times at Ridgemont High) writes and directs.
The scoop: Though it’s buried at the end of July, I have hopes in this movie because when Heckerling succeeds, she really hits it out of the park.
• The Night Listener
The stats: Stars Robin Williams, Toni Collette and Sandra Oh; opens Aug. 4.
Campaign platform: A psychological thriller about a late-night radio host who tries to unravel the mystery of one disturbed listener.
Likely constituency: Moviegoers looking for something, anything, that isn’t a dick-and-fart joke comedy.
Secret weapon: Based on a story by Armistead Maupin.
The scoop: Sounds interesting but the August release makes me suspicious.
• Trust the Man
The stats: Stars David Duchovny, Julianne Moore and Billy Crudup; opens Aug. 18 in limited release and Sept. 1 wide
Campaign platform: Two couples attempt to navigate the scary world of marriage; semi-independent-movie-type drama ensues.
Likely constituency: Married people looking for some kind of realistic portrayal of their lives; X-Files fans who can’t let go already.
Secret weapon: Maggie Gyllenhaall
The scoop: Trailers are moderately promising.
• Idlewild 
The stats: Stars Big Boi and Andre 3000
Campaign platform: Set in the South in the prohibition era, the film tells the story of an African American speakeasy and its staff, clients and potential mob overlords.
Likely constituency: Outkast fans; period piece fans.
Secret weapon: Music.
The scoop: Jazzy, bluesy soundtrack seems legitimately cool and could help smooth out any rough edges.

The John McCain (the candidate that doesn’t win the race but wins many a heart)
• Snakes on a Plane (R)
The stats: Stars Samuel L. Jackson and Julianna Margulies; opens Aug. 18.
Campaign platform: An assassin attempts to kill an informant via snake.
Likely constituency: Everyone who owns a computer.
Secret weapon: Snakes. On a plane.
The scoop: Just Google “Snakes on a Plane” and you’ll understand why this movie, regardless of its actual blockbuster success, is the movie of summer 2006.