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August 30, 2007
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LONGSHOTS: The race is on as baseball enters September Who in the name of Bowie Kuhn came up with the idea to place the latest apocalyptic Yankee-Red Sox series dead center in the black hole of my deadline? It means the series starts after I write this and is halfway done by the time most folks see this column, sometime around the fifth inning on Wednesday. Grrrrr! It’s going to make me go out on a limb to mix in a series of predictions for what has happened amid the other baseball thoughts I’ve got today as the pennant race enters the final month. There is nothing in sports like a great September pennant race. In a football playoff fight, you have a big game and then have to endure an entire week before the next one arrives. In baseball, you can get right back on the horse the very next day to wipe out the sting of a bad loss. Here’s what I was wrong about going into the season: I thought Dustin Pedroia was in over his head, and David Ortiz and Manny, who’s having his worst year ever, would be as productive as in years gone by. Here’s what I was right about: they VASTLY overpaid for J. D. Drew, couldn’t count on Curt Schilling for more than being a third starter (because of age related issues), Josh Beckett had to win at least 18 to win the division, Coco Crisp would be solid in center and it was a must that Jonathan Papelbon be the closer. I’m not sure which category Julio Lugo and Tim Wakefield fall into. I was against signing Lugo, but while he had as bad a first half as anyone can, he was still productive. Don’t believe me? Did you know, that, as I write this, he has 19 more runs batted in than Drew? As for Wakefield, I doubt I’m alone in not seeing him in the race to lead the AL in wins. I was expecting maybe 13. I think after this, when it’s finally over, around 2031, I’ll bet Wake falls into the Red Sox nation’s beloved former player category. Yesterday’s game (I’m writing this on Monday) was a paradox. A classic irresistible force meets an immovable object. That is after being just the fourth team in almost 60 years to reach double digits in runs in four straight games the bats were white hot. But, when Dice-K pitches they’ve been shutout twice, scored a lone run twice and scored two on three occasions. Once Michael Vick’s attorney is done clearing up the final details, maybe he should retain his services to sue for lack of support. Or, if he wants to go local, I suggest he get the number off the sign going into F-Cat games and hire former Central hoopster John Kacavas to be his lawyer. Who’s the MVP to date? Beckett, Papelbon, Hidecki Okajima or Mike Lowell? My vote goes to Lowell, but let me ask, when’s the last time three of the top four candidates for any season were pitchers? Bet it was before the Curse started. And while Dustin Pedroia’s surprising year should earn him votes, Okajima is the 10th man, right? Speaking of Lowell, who came here as a human ransom note because they had to take on his salary to get Becket — what do you think the brass will do with the free-agent-to-be? I know one thing: if they try to get him to take a two year deal, doesn’t he have a right to ask why in the name of Matt Young they lavished a five year deal on the brittle Drew if policy is for shorter deals? You’ve got to get what you can, but one thing I hope Lowell realizes is that Fenway Park puffs the numbers. If you don’t believe me, pick a player — from Fred Lynn to Nomar, to Nick Esasky to Mo Vaughn — and find me anyone who hit better outside of Fenway. OK, I’ll spot you Edgar Renteria, but name another. Speaking of Manny’s worst year ever, here are two stats you won’t like. The 20 double plays he’s hit leads the AL, and he’s been called out on strikes a whopping 35 times. Here’s a third: his last homer came on August 6th, and it’s his only one this month. Is it a bad year, or a sign of things to come? Of course, now that I put that in the paper, I’ll bet he has at least one in N.Y. by the time you read this. Remember the big deal people like me made about the great fielding when the Sox recorded a lowest-ever 65 errors in 2006? Well, with 68, they’ve already passed that mark, but they’re on track for the second-best season ever. Thirty-one have been committed by two guys — Lugo and Lowell, with 16 and 15 respectively. Pedroia has just five, Kevin Youkillis three and Coco Crisp one. Yet we haven’t heard a peep about the fielding this year. Why? I know it seems like I’m picking on Drew, who incidentally has six errors in right now, but what we don’t know is how much worries related to the illness of his youngest child have contributed to his struggles. I’m guessing a lot. If you like to look ahead, the Crisp rumors will be flying even more furiously in the winter now that center-fielder-in-waiting Jacoby Ellsbury has a club record 20-game hitting streak at Pawtucket to go with everything else. Especially that speed. But given Coco’s reversal of fortune, the salary-cap-friendly Crisp will bring back a lot more this winter than he would have when the naysayers wanted to dump him for anything in May. Which brings me to Theo. I have been critical of the revolving door at shortstop and his choices in free agency – but with the presence of Papelbon, Youkillis, Pedroia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Ellsbury and others, Theo has revitalized a farm system that hasn’t been this productive since the early ’80s when Bobby Ojeda, John Tudor, Oil Can Boyd, Bruce Hurst and Roger Clemens came out of the farm system around the same time. And, finally, I purposely put in a few things here from the “glass is half empty” perspective, which may seem odd, since the Sox went to the Bronx with baseball’s best record. I did it to illustrate what I feel is best about the team: the future. Because in a year filled with uneven hitting issues and big money free agents living on the border of Bustville, they still have the best record. And it’s because, unlike the previous administrations going back to 1920, this group knows that you win with pitching, and that’s just how they are doing it. That speaks well for what lies ahead. And, finally: I say they take at least two of three in NY and knock Roger out of the box early. Dave Long is host of Home Team Saturday with Dave Long and Company, 10 a.m. to noon each Saturday morning on WGAM (1250 AM in Manchester and 900 AM in Nashua).
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8/23/2007 Spine vs. lack of spine theme for school board debate 8/16/2007 Time for thoughts from the summer mailbag
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